The Bank of England may be forced to bring forward the date of its first interest rate cut after three leading forecasters issued a surprise update suggesting the inflation rate will halve to 2% by April.

Oxford Economics and analysts at Investec and Deutsche Bank have reassessed their outlook for inflation in 2024 and concluded that the consumer prices index (CPI), which dropped to 3.9% in November last year, will fall below 2% within four months.

A slump in energy prices and the cost of oil on international wholesale markets will, they say, bring down inflation at a faster rate than the Bank of England expected when it reviewed price rises in November. The independent forecasters said a fresh review next month by officials at the Bank’s headquarters on Threadneedle Street was likely to follow their lead and predict a much lower path for inflation this year.

In a series of speeches before Christmas, members of the BoE’s interest rate setting committee said lending rates would remain high during 2024 to reduce the prospect of a return to galloping price rises.

The Bank’s governor, Andrew Bailey, had predicted a tough battle lay ahead to bring inflation back to its 2% target, pushing back against speculation in the financial markets that official borrowing costs would soon be reduced from their current level of 5.25%.