So - you’ve survived 2023. That’s worth a pat on the back, at least. The “R” word (Recession) was used so many times - although never as yet justified about the UK economy, although it will be close - but in reality, in real terms - that’s exactly where the UK housing market was. It was in recession. There’s a double digit drop, once inflation has been taken into account, in house prices - regardless of whatever metric, index or runes you choose to use.

Rule one of the Recession - which, if you look at the bearish forecasts from most of the industry players, who tend to have an awful track record, it isn’t over yet - is that you hold on to your assets. For the purposes of this article, I’m going to assume you’ve done that - or got rid of anything you didn’t really want to keep long-term anyway. Needs must when the devil is driving.

Anyway - you’ve got some net income, and/or some capital, and are deciding just what to do in 2024, and ideally beyond the next 12 months.

Let’s hope you are looking beyond. If you are just looking at 2024, the temptation may be that like 2023 - those bank savings accounts start to look somewhat attractive! Of course, for that to be the case, you need to be ignoring inflation, or taking a 1970s-style attitude - who can lose the least in real terms?

I’m going to make the case here that you might well be missing a long-awaited opportunity as well. These relatively short windows of opportunity do open, now and again, and we are just about in the perfect maelstrom of events, to wheel out that rightly-famous Warren Buffett phrase - “Be greedy ONLY when others are fearful”.

Are others fearful? Yes, they are. Is there blood on the streets? Not exactly - but there are some real challenges. Margins are lower than they were. Rents have gone up so much - surely that can’t continue? Can I achieve positive cashflow? Do I have to pay a giant arrangement fee if I want a new loan at the moment?