Interest rate rises fail to slow European house prices in 2006 says RICS
Despite interest rate rises and a supply increases in several buoyant housing markets, Europe continued to show solid house-price inflation across the board, according to RICS European Housing Review 2007.
In a positive sign for European property investors, local markets failed to follow the lead from across the Atlantic as the US market ground to a halt. Whilst most markets did not quite reach the highs of 2005, many were still achieving double digit growth.
The only thing more buoyant than European house prices were the mortgage markets in those countries. Rate rises by the European Central Bank (ECB) did little to halt the rapid growth in mortgage debt with mortgage lending in eight out of the 12 euro-zone countries rising at double digit rates in 2006.
Whilst the ECB increased interest rates by 1.5% in the 2005-2006 period lenders failed to pass on the bulk of the rise with consumers still afforded the luxury of borrowing below these increases. This may go some way to explaining why Europe has failed to follow the US into a house-building drought.
Of the big four, only the UK outstripped its 2005 performance with house prises rising by 10%. This bounce back to form reflects the UK’s dire land and new housing predicament, as lack of supply continues to artificially inflate the market.
France dropped to 7%, a sign that one of Europe’s longest performing housing markets may be levelling out. Germany remained stagnant, but signs are showing that the housing market may begin to mirror the improving fortunes of the economy. Italy remained close to its 2005 growth, slightly down at 4%.
The Scandinavian countries continued their impressive growth with Denmark extending its bullish run matching 2005 at around 22%. Norway (17%) and Sweden (11%) joined the northern assault with continued impressive results, but failed to catch Poland, where price inflation above 30%.
The report’s author, professor Michael Ball, said: “In the main, Europe’s housing markets had another strong year. The long predicted soft-landings have yet to materialise, with European Central Bank interest rate rises having little effect in the Euro-zone so far.”
Milan Khatri, RICS chief economist, added: “Fears of a considerable house price slowdown in what are considered as over-heated markets of the UK, Spain and Ireland, once again proved to be quite off the mark of actual developments.”
Henry Wilkes, head of central and eastern European investment at Savills plc, said: “ Poland is the star performer in terms of property price growth, followed by the Baltic States. However, this is expected to slow as the various markets mature. Not surprisingly, as the various Central and East European economies develop (pre and post EU accession) big increases in individual earnings and the advent of mortgage products have led to considerable pent up demand for brand new and higher quality homes. People are desperate to move from their small, dilapidated apartments in the multiple, drab, Communist concrete block buildings.” |