Stage three tax cuts, soaring population growth and lagging housing supply could see Australian property prices rise up to 4% over 2024, and as much as 8% in some capital cities, a new report predicts.

The latest PropTrack Property Market Outlook Report forecasts home prices across the country will grow between 1% and 4% over the next 12 months, slightly slower than the 5.5% pace of growth recorded so far in 2023.

Property prices reached new record highs in November after rising for an eleventh consecutive month.

PropTrack director of economic research and report author Cameron Kusher expects the trends that fuelled prices in 2023 will likely persist, underpinning price growth next year despite higher interest rates. He added: “Reflecting on 2023, a number of factors drove the home price rebound. The volume of stock available for sale remained at persistently low levels while buyer demand also increased significantly, fuelled by a housing shortage and strong population growth.”

Over the 12 months to March 2023, Australia’s population increased by 563,205 persons.

In Sydney and Melbourne, where total listing volumes are now back above the decade average, price growth is set to be more subdued, compared to Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth where supply remains extremely tight, more than 30% below their November decade average.