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House price inflation reaches 11 month high and supply hits series low

While the average stock of homes per surveyor fell to a record low (data series began in 1978), demand edged upwards for the second successive month, despite the more cautious attitude of lenders.

One reason for the slight recovery in buyer enquiries is likely to have been a further drop in mortgage rates which is accompanying the ongoing strength of the labour market, with the West Midlands and London seeing the strongest increase in potential buyers during the month. 

Significantly, 41% more surveyors expect house prices to rise over the next three months, which is the highest proportion since April 2014 and 36% more surveyors expect sales to increase despite the broadly flat trend in newly agreed sales.

Across the rental sector, the demand and supply imbalance is also visible and instructions, which have been broadly unchanged for the past couple of years and show no signs of a material increase, are at growing odds with the rising demand that is putting further upward pressure on rents. 

Simon Rubinsohn, RICS chief economist, said: “Although much of the discussion about supply shortages has focused on the owner-occupier market, (this) demonstrates in no uncertain terms that the issue, at least at a headline level, is just as visible in the rental sector. This is most clearly reflected in both the house price and rental projections over the medium term which comfortably exceeds the likely growth in wages.”

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