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Buy-to-let sellers unlikely to cause a sustained fall in house prices

Capital Economics reports that a recent survey of letting agents found that the share of landlords planning to sell properties has risen to a seven-year high.

CE believes that this could be a sign that prices have peaked. The firm reports: ‘The number of landlords looking to offload at least part of their portfolio does seem to be rising. A recent survey from the Association of Residential Letting Agents (ARLA) found that 27% of letting agents thought that landlords were currently looking to sell properties. That is the highest share since the second quarter of 2007 – a reading which occurred just a few months before the peak in house prices in late 2007.’

However, CE adds: ‘The survey could be an indication that prices have now peaked. But we would caution against such an interpretation. For one, letting agents also believe that a large share of landlords are buying properties. Indeed the balance between the two is still positive, in contrast to the situation in mid-2007. With overall housing demand supported by a growing economy and rising employment, and first-time buyers driving the recent recovery, any increase in buy-to-let sellers will cool, rather than crash, prices.’

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