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Spain’s improving economy won’t boost house prices, says Moody’s

Spain’s improving economy won’t immediately lead to a ‘sustainable’ rise in property values as oversupply, high unemployment and a dwindling population mean demand will remain weak for the next few years, Moody’s said.

Spanish property prices have fallen by around 40% since the start of the crash and official data shows that prices have increased for the first time in six years, up 0.8% in the second quarter, compared to Q2 2013, which is the first increase since 2008, Spain’s National Statistics Institute reported last week.

Property values climbed 1.7% from Q1 this year but many think that it is too early to say that prices will now keep rising again.

“Despite many proclaiming the end of price drops and some embarrassing newspaper headlines heralding soon-to-be seen increases, it’s still too early to speak of a generalised recovery,” Fernando Encinar, co-founder of Idealista.com, Spain’s largest property website, said in an interview last week.

One main cause for concern is that Spain’s population of 25-year-olds to 35-year-olds, a typical source of first-time home buyers, will decline by 35% over the next decade, according to the National Statistics Institute. The country also has the second-highest unemployment rate in the Eurozone after Greece at 24.5%.

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