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EU cities face years of slow growth but accession cities will sprint ahead

Oxford Economics reports in its July 2014 ‘European Cities & Regions Quarterly Outlook’ that most of the EU faces years of sluggish growth but the large cities in accession countries like Sofia and Warsaw will be playing catch-up.

The firm writes: ‘The prospects for Europe’s cities (and regions) are clearly driven in part by the outlook for Europe as a whole. This remains distinctly uninspiring: after a 0.4% fall in Eurozone GDP in 2013 we project a rise in GDP of just 1.1% in 2014. Furthermore, what is really disappointing is that subsequent years seem unlikely to be much better.

‘We forecast an average rate of growth of 1.5% a year over the 2014-18 period, which is less than half the growth that we forecast for the world as a whole. Against such a background, only the most vibrant and competitive cities stand much chance of achieving strong and sustained economic growth.

‘Where, therefore, will the growth mostly come from? Of the nine fastest growing cities from the 25 covered in detail in this report, five are in Central or Eastern Europe. Sofia is projected to achieve a remarkable 4.1% average annual growth during the 2014-18 forecast period, followed by Warsaw on 3.7% and Bucharest running alongside London on 3.3%.’

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